Friday, September 9, 2011

A non-arbed-out trading idea

It is an empirical (but not fully backtested) observation that every time our  fearless leader speaks the market tanks. Some have doubted this on the grounds that correlation does not mean causality, but the first (and quite considerable) example of this phenomenon happened on the occasion of his inauguration, where, as the great man spoke the S&P 500 plunged by around 5% (from 840 to 805), this setting the tone for the rest of his term (I almost said "hopefully his only term", but the alternatives look pretty bleak also).

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