Saturday, March 3, 2012

Efficient markets?

On January 24 2012, Apple came out with its quarterly data, which completely obliterated analysts projections. AAPL was trading at a P/E multiple of around 12 at the time (already quite low for a company with Apple's growth). Following the earnings report, we saw the following price movement (presumably not over, unless Apple really screws up the iPad 3 badly):

In other words, after a relatively modest 4% jump on the day following the earnings announcement, the stock has been going up linearly. No significant news has come out since the earnings report (there have been reports of the coming iPad 3 for several months, and since, in the post-Steve Jobs era, Apple secrecy is not what it used to be, the rumors have been detailed and consistent. Much has been said of the considerable Apple cash hoard, but that, again, is not news. The question is: since all the relevant information has been available for over a month, why such a slow reaction time, which flies in the face of the efficient markets hypothesis. The only explanation I can come up with is that Apple is large enough that to significantly move the price, very large pension funds and mutual funds have to decide to buy, and whatever these guys are, quick on the uptake is not it. The morals of the story seem to be: not all opportunity lies in $10 cap micro stocks, and those of us with money in (for example) TIAA-CREF should be very sad.

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